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McAninch TMRCA (Time to Most-Recent Common Ancestor) Calculations |
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Three McAninch males living in the 21st-century have taken Y-DNA tests at Family Tree DNA: |
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a. this author, sixth-generation descendant of Kentucky pioneer Daniel McAninch (b.1750-1755, |
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(northern) Ireland, d.ca.1822, prob. Tennessee) [Daniel McAninch, 1.a. above, and Note n4] |
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b. a sixth-generation descendant of Kentucky pioneer William McAninch (b.bef.1765, d.1813, |
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left his Will in Casey County, Kentucky) [William McAninch, 1.b. above, and Note n4] |
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c. a seventh-generation descendant of John McAninch, western Penn., Armstrong County pioneer |
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(b.ca.1760, (Scotch Corners) Ireland, d.ca.Oct.1839, Buffalo Twp., Armstrong County, Penn., |
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father of ‘three brothers’ William, John, and Henry in Pennsylvania) [2.a. above, and Note n5] |
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The TMRCA Calculations were run online at Family Tree DNA, using their ‘TiP’ method [51] |
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(Infinite Allele Method) [36]. With 6 and 7 generations born in North America, we know there |
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were no common ancestors in those generations, and any possible MRCA (Most-Recent Common |
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Ancestor(s)) would almost certainly have lived in the British Isles (probably in northern Ireland). |
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So, comparing the Y-DNA results with each other McAninch, knowing that we did not have a |
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common ancestor in the last 6 or 7 generations, the probability that we shared a common ancestor |
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within the last ‘n’ generations (beyond 6 or 7) generated the following distribution [52]: |
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8 Generations: 25.0% - 34.41% (range of probabilities from TiP’s among three McAninch men) |
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12 Generations: 65.28% - 72.91% |
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16 Generations: 86.55% - 91.27% |
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20 Generations: 95.37% - 97.61% (96.5% mean, range ~2.2%) |
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24 Generations: 98.53% - 99.42% (98.9% mean, range 0.9%) |
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Now, converting ‘generations’ into ‘years’ (using 33 years per male generation) [53] [54], |
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expanding the range by +/-15% (which will account for assumed mutation rates, etc.) [55] [56], |
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and based on ‘years before present’ (ybp) before 1950 [57], we get these two TMRCA ranges: |
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20 generations TMRCA est. 667 ybp (1950), +/- 100 yrs (15%), range 1180-1385 CE [58], and |
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24 generations TMRCA est. 800 ybp (1950), +/- 120 yrs (15%), range 1030-1270 CE [59]. |
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So, 98.9% at 24 generations gives a very high probability for a Most-Recent Common Ancestor |
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(MRCA) back in the 11th or 12th Century, long before surnames or international borders, and |
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long before any written records or ‘paper trail’ that might identify or trace our common ancestor. |
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Larger (11-man) TMRCA (Time to Most-Recent Common Ancestor) Calculations |
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Larger focus group: combining Y-DNA data available in the R1b-M222 Project [22] and in the |
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Clan MacInnes DNA Project [n2] (both projects are hosted by Family Tree DNA) with some |
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additional data provided in private correspondence, there are 11 men in our experimental larger |
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focus group for another Time to Most-Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) calculation [60]: |
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_______________________________________________________________________________________________________ |
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McAninch Y-DNA Status Report 2016: 7 of 8: Time to Most-Recent Common Ancestor calc’s |
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McAninch Family History NL v.XXIV n.1 / April 2016 / Copyright Frank McAninch / pg.2016-08 |
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